Driving the future

By / 9 years ago / Features / No Comments

It will be well into the 2020s by the time cars that can drive themselves are a common sight on our roads but Volvo will have 100 autonomous cars running around its home city of Gothenburg in Sweden by 2017.

The XC90 models will be operated by lease customers on their normal daily commute. The carmaker has been working with the City of Gothenburg authorities, Linholdmen Science Park and the Swedish Transport Administration on its Drive Me programme, which will use main commuting roads in the city.

Marcus Rothoff, Volvo’s autonomous driving programme director, said: “These are urban highway roads, dual carriageway with no pedestrians or cyclists and where speed is limited to 80km/h. This is technically feasible with current sensors and technology and we plan to start the autonomous driving programme by 2017.”

He added: “The car opened up the opportunity to travel and has become a symbol of freedom. That’s the way we want it to stay, but the reality is being stuck in traffic and the frustration involved in that. When it becomes no longer time efficient and boring you become distracted and that leads to safety issues. Many customers already tell us they want the autonomous car now.

“At Volvo we don’t just focus on safety, we are safety. The company mission is that by 2020 no one will be killed or seriously injured in a Volvo. Long-term we will have a Volvo that doesn’t crash – the only way we can get customers to trust us with autonomous driving is by making cars that do not crash.”

And safety is key to the success of the driverless car. Is a driver prepared to sit back, open up a newspaper and then let the vehicle take over? It is a subject that is seeing one of the biggest changes to the automobile – and, indeed the industry, since, well, since volume production started.

It has pitched the car industry into a technology race with IT giants such as Apple and Google to find mobility solutions for the ‘mega cities’ of the future.

The future of transport is going to be more congested. Industry figures show that today there are 2bn people globally in the middle class – those able to buy cars – and project that by 2030 that figure will double to 4bn. A huge potential, then, for global gridlock.

Carmakers are moving beyond their traditional tier one suppliers as connected and autonomous cars become a reality and are increasingly talking to different industry sectors, governments and organisations.

Graham Hoare, global director, vehicle evaluation and verification at Ford, told the recent SMMTConnect conference in London that infrastructure is an important issue as driverless vehicles take to the roads.

He said: “We are now talking to many more people beyond our traditional tier ones and building relationships with many new people dealing with infrastructure such as city planners, telecommunications and internet companies, all moving at different clock speeds, so that is a challenge.”

Driverless cars are also an issue for the insurance industry, which will have to look at accident liability in the future. John Leech, UK head of automotive at KPMG, said: “Our research has so far shown that current laws are sufficient to determine liability whether personal or manufacturing defect. As we move towards a situation where a car can drive itself, with control occasionally taken back by the driver, then we might need more clarity.”

Managing the relationship between vehicle manufacturers and internet giants such as Apple and Google will also be a major challenge for the connected car – the auto industry is not determining the pace, it is the smart phone.

Wolfgang Ziebart, director of engineering at Jaguar Land Rover, said there is an issue over who benefits from harvesting the data collected by a connected car – the auto industry or the Internet companies.

Ziebart said: “Apple and Google have even said they will make their own cars, we are not afraid of that but we do fear disruption of the automotive business model. We do not want to be left as just the hardware manufacturer with all the software and its data collection benefitting someone else.

“But, what we cannot do is move forward separately – that is a no-win situation. When a car is on the move it can collect all sorts of real-time information, which can be highly relevant in the Internet of Things, but we must be very careful how we use that.

“Apple and Google have a huge number of users and can leverage vast numbers of application writers and this has been the key to the success of the smart phone – it’s no longer just a telephone or media player. For the car manufacturer the key is to provide a platform for apps but we must own the infrastructure and the data stored within.

“Neither can succeed on their own and certainly manufacturers won't open up the car to Apple or Google to please themselves. Access to information must be under the ultimate control of the customer.”

BMW’s Glenn Schmidt, head of steering government and external affairs, sustainability communications, said that the use of data is the essence of future debate. He said the availability of data allows real-time information and relevant services to be made available.

“But we have to take into account relevance, context and how personal the information is. People say cars will become a smart phone on wheels but I disagree. If you lose a smart phone or it goes wrong it is annoying but if something goes wrong in a car it’s a major safety issue. Data gathered in the car can be important for safety and security issues or product liability but a lot of data must require customer consent before it can be accessed. It will be a global debate and third party access can only be granted once we have sorted this out.”

Ed Vaizey, UK minister for business, innovation and skills, said that it is important to start from the principle that data must be owned by the citizen. “There is legislation going through right now on this issue but there has to be an element of common sense. Most people understand that data collection can result in better personalised service and customer experience while the aggregation of anonymous data can make life easier in terms of telling drivers about road conditions or traffic congestion.”

Britain is in a prime position to be

a global leader in connected and autonomous vehicle development stemming from the UK government’s decision in the 1960s not to ratify the Vienna convention, enabling on-road driverless car pilots to take place without the need for primary legislation.

Research commissioned by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders has found the development of connected and autonomous vehicles will help generate 320,000 jobs in the country as well as delivering other benefits to the economy.

The report, compiled by analysts at KPMG, also found that these new vehicles could reduce serious road traffic accidents by more than 25,000 a year by 2030. It also forecasts the UK will be a global leader in the production of this next generation of vehicles.

SMMT chief executive, Mike Hawes (pictured below), said: “Connected and autonomous cars will transform our roads and the way our society functions for generations to come, dramatically reducing accidents. The KPMG report clearly shows the UK automotive industry is leading the way in developing the cars of the future and that it will act as a catalyst for wider economic benefits that will create more than 300,000 jobs by 2030.”

Mike Bell, global connected car director, Jaguar Land Rover, said: “The potential of the connected car is huge. It is certainly one of our top priorities and we are making a significant investment in the technology, skills and partnerships to make this a reality. Jaguar Land Rover is taking a leading role and is actively embracing the connected car. We have huge potential to ensure the car has a prominent role in the Internet of Things, which will enhance the driving experience and make driving smarter, safer and even cleaner in the years to come.”

But will people still be buying cars in 10 or 15 years’ time? Especially if there is no need to drive them? Car sharing is increasing in popularity and Switzerland can lay claim to having the most successful car sharing business worldwide.

More than 120,000 people have signed up to the Mobility Group’s nationwide car-sharing scheme. Since the co-operative’s start-up in 1997, Mobility cars and vans have been an increasingly common sight on Swiss roads.

Some 2,700 red Mobility vehicles are now available at 1,400 pick-up points around the country including car parks and train stations. The Swiss environmental association VCS/ATE has also reported a rapid development in private and company car pools in recent years.

Vehicle ownership in the country is not declining, however. Figures show that last year there were 4.4m cars registered in Switzerland and the number of private vehicles has been rising steadily since 1990.

With 120,300 customers, Mobility’s level of market penetration means the scheme is considered to be number one in the world, offering people freedom from the costs and obligations of owning their own vehicle, and to travel as and when they want.

The business pointed out that the average private car in Switzerland is not used for 23 out of 24 hours. Mobility allows people to pay only for their actual journeys based on hourly and kilometre tariffs.

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Natalie Middleton

Natalie has worked as a fleet journalist for nearly 20 years, previously as assistant editor on the former Company Car magazine before joining Fleet World in 2006. Prior to this, she worked on a range of B2B titles, including Insurance Age and Insurance Day. Natalie edits all the Fleet World websites and newsletters, and loves to hear about any latest industry news - or gossip.

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