Overall decreases in Indonesia and Malaysia exacerbated the continued decline in Thailand, where market normalization is taking place. The current annual projection for 2014 has been cut by 44k, to around 3.07 million, reflecting the existing momentum. Although strong demand in the Philippines and Vietnam continued, their market sizes are not comparable.

Thailand led the decline in July falling by 28% compared to last year. Monthly sales stood at just above 67k, from 94k last year, and 71k in the previous month.

Annual sales are currently projected at around 844k, a further significant cut from the previous month of 869k. This projection is still on the downside as the Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate in July reached only 792k, much lower than an average of the previous six months of 874k. Contrary to media speculation, there is no sign of recovery.

Sales in Indonesia also dropped considerably by 17% to around 86k in July. This can be attributed to fewer working days as a result of the Lebaran holidays. A similar scenario was also evident in Malaysia where the same tradition is upheld. Sales in Malaysia in July also dropped markedly by 12%, to 59k.

Annual projections for both markets are expected at around 1.18 million and 661k, respectively. These levels are slightly lower than those in the previous projection in order to reflect the current decline in sales. However, we expect this to be temporary, with levels likely to recover in the coming months, as typically happens.

In contrast, sales in the Philippines and Vietnam continued to perform well. July sales in the former market increased by 31%, registering a new monthly peak of 23k, while the latter also saw strong growth of 13%, or 11k.

The sales projection for 2014 is expected at 256k and 128k, respectively. The projection in the Philippines has been increased from 253k previously, while it was adjusted marginally downward in Vietnam from 129k. The July SAAR at 269k and 147k suggests the current projection is on the upside.