According to PA Consulting Group’s annual forecast, Volkswagen, BMW, Hyundai-Kia and Jaguar Land Rover are set to miss their 2021 EU emissions targets, which leaves them open to fines of €95 for every gram of CO2 above their target, multiplied by the number of cars sold.

Thomas Göttle, automotive expert at PA Consulting Group, said: “Manufacturers are already struggling to meet the EU targets but these challenges are only going to get worse. The EU plans to change the testing regime in 2017 to measure emissions in real driving conditions. This will make the test much harder and we forecast that under this new test cycle, not a single carmaker will reach its specific CO2 target by 2020/2021.”

PA’s most recent ranking of the top 13 European car manufacturers’ performance against EU CO2 emission targets for 2021 put Peugeot Citroen still in the top spot, followed by Fiat Chrysler in second and Renault-Nissan at number three, with Toyota remaining in fourth place. It added that these four carmakers and Volvo, all look set to meet their individual emission targets in 2021.

PA added that based on current sales forecasts, BMW will have face around €100m in penalty payments; Hyundai-Kia €300m and Volkswagen about €1bn.

“Carmakers must take steps to optimise their engine performance, cut vehicle weight and reshape vehicle portfolio in order to reduce and meet their emissions targets for 2021 and reduce the risk of incurring penalties,” said Mr Göttle.