The firm’s data shows that US October Light Vehicle sales were up over 10% compared with the same month last year. The corresponding SAAR of 15.2 million units/year was similar to September. Truck sales (up 9.4%) outperformed car sales (up 3.2%) for the tenth consecutive month. The market looks well placed for further growth in 2014.

Light Vehicle sales in Canada increased by 5.6%.7% YoY in October translating into a SAAR of 1.8 million units/year, another strong result with a market now at record levels.

West European Light Vehicle sales have enjoyed a second month of improving sales – the selling rate hit 13.3 million units/year, the highest since the first half of 2012. While we have suggested before that the bottom of the market has been reached, these two recent results hint that an upturn may finally be starting to emerge, perhaps sooner than expected. However, given the economic and political fragility in the region, it would be optimistic to expect a sustained period of increasing sales in the near future, though we do expect sales to start to steadily improve from 2014. With a real turning point in prospect, this is clearly a market to watch closely.

Sales in Russia disappointed, after a couple of months of apparent stability. The selling rate fell to 2.74 million units/year after a more encouraging result in September. The current loan incentive scheme may not be having the desired positive effect: negative risks for 2014 are growing.

Preliminary estimates indicate that the Chinese market has regained record-high sales. The holiday-adjusted October selling rate was 22.4 million units/year, slightly higher than September. On a year-on-year basis, sales were up 17.5% in October. Inventory at dealerships reportedly dropped to 1.19 months at the end of September, the lowest level since February 2013, which will boost deliveries to dealerships.

Consumers are encouraged by an improving economy, in particular rising property prices. Businesses are also increasingly optimistic, with October manufacturing PMI picking up to an 18- month high in October. Given low inventory, sales are expected to remain strong in the final months of 2013.

In Japan, consumers have started to rush to buy cars as the government has formally announced that it will raise the consumption tax from the current 5% to 8% in April 2014. The selling rate surged to a five-month high of 5.3 million units/year in October and is expected to continue to rise before the tax hike.

In South Korea, the selling rate rebounded strongly to 1.6 million units/year in October after declining sharply due to holidays and labour strikes in September. Consumer confidence and spending are improving, as the government’s fiscal stimulus measures earlier this year are feeding through to the economy.

The Brazilian market has shown surprising resilience in the face of rising interest rates and high inflation. The selling rate surged to 3.7 million units/year in October, up nearly 12% from September, and reversed the downward trend evident since April. The expected end of the IPI tax cuts in December may have encouraged vehicle purchasing.

In Argentina, the selling rate is estimated to have surged to a record-high of 1 million units/year in October despite the rising risk of a financial crisis. Rampant inflation and the continuing sharp depreciation of the peso is encouraging consumers to spend on durable goods, such as new cars.

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