Cox Automotive has outlined its 2024 forecasts for the UK’s new and used car markets – making some bold predictions.

Cox Automotive’s new Insight Report sets out the trends that will shape automotive in 2024

Its new Insight Report, produced in collaboration with Grant Thornton, sets out the trends that will shape automotive in 2024 as the sector undergoes its most significant era of change in the past 50 years.

For the UK’s new vehicle sector, it foresees a baseline scenario of 2,020,050 new vehicle registrations in 2024 – up 4.3% year-on-year albeit a continued steep decline compared to the 2000-2019 average.

For the used sector, the baseline scenario figure foresees registrations of 7,350,205, which is a 2.8% year-on-year increase but a 0.3% decrease compared to the 2001-2019 average.

The calculations suggest that 2024 will be a period of stabilisation in the automotive sector generally, followed by a notable rise in registrations in successive years. Cox anticipates that the market will eventually be split between manufacturers “that want profitability at the cost of volume and market share; and those who will return to a ‘push’ market at the cost of profit for volume and market dominance”.

The baseline scenario is one of three scenarios published by Cox Automotive and is the scenario it expects to play out. The report also includes upside and downside scenarios.

Cox says the hypotheses guiding the baseline prediction include figures for new car registrations will be dictated by continuing economic pressures, the agency sales model transition and the stabilising of global production volumes.

Used market numbers for 2024 will be shaped by issues including a gradual adoption of used battery electric vehicles (BEVs), a moderately recovering economy and a “carefully managed” growth in the supply of used vehicles.

The Insight Report 2023/24 also features discussion of trends that are shaping the industry such as the agency sales model, omnichannel, the unstoppable rise of EVs, battery management and sustainability.

Philip Nothard, Cox Automotive’s insight director and author of the report, said: “Recent years in the automotive sector have seen a period of unprecedented change and tumult that are being driven by economic forces, geopolitics and technological innovation. In our latest Insight Report, we closely examine these factors and outline how we think the future will pan out for dealers, the EV market and much more.

“We are also proud to continue leading the pack with our new and used forecasts. Our latest forecast accuracy averages 99.1%, meaning ours are outlooks that can be relied on.”

To access the report, click here.