In its June figures, the firm reports that total light vehicle sales in the ASEAN‐5 countries amount to approximately 249k, a 9% decreased year‐on‐year (YoY). However, the decreasing rate is an improvement on the monthly average of ‐ 14% during the first quarter of 2014. This is largely the result of sales growth in other countries, and a comparatively lower base in Thailand towards the second half of 2013, once the impact of the 2012 first car scheme had tailed off. LMCA has cut the regional outlook for 2014 to 3.16 million from 3.20 million previously.

The cut was made mainly in Thailand where 39k was removed. As a result, the outlook for 2014 was reduced to around 900k. The firm adds that its reduction is fairly conservative since the average YTD Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate was as low as 885k, and the May SAAR was even lower at around 810k. In fact, actual May sales came in significantly lower at around 68k, a ‐37% decrease YoY. It is notable that this level was still much higher than the monthly average of 64k in 2011, when annual sales were around 774k before doubling the following year. Although LMCA says it’s 900k projection is balanced, it is on the downside.

The annual outlook for Indonesia was also cut slightly by around 4k, but the volume was insignificant compared to the current total sales figure of 1.22 million. This market is expected to surpass Thailand’s to become the biggest car market in the region for the first time. May sales, although lower by a few hundred, continued to show strength on the back of increasing demand for new models, particularly under the LCGC program.

The 2014 sales forecast for Malaysia was also cut by almost 6k, but the volume is by no means insignificant in a market with a projected size of less than 669k. The cut was made mainly to reflect weaker‐than‐expected sales in May at just above 55k. In fact, the current outlook is still on the downside, considering the average YTD SAAR is only around 668k. In essence, LMCA says it had overestimated the market momentum, given that growth was ongoing on the back strong demand for sub‐compact cars and MPVs following new model introductions.

In contrast, LMCA has increased its annual sales outlook in the Philippines and Vietnam to reflect the positive momentum in these markets.

Sales in the Philippines are now expected to reach around 241k, an increase of more than 4k. The new forecast is still relatively low compared to the May SAAR, which achieved a record high of 265k and an average YTD SAAR of around 253k. LMCA adds there is a distinct possibility that the figure will be added to in the near future. CAMPI, the local automotive association, had previously revised its outlook to 250k, which included medium and heavy commercial vehicles.

Sales in Vietnam are now expected to be just below 128k, an increase of 8k on the previous outlook. In fact, sales in May surpassed the 13k level for the first time since April 2008. The current outlook is still lower than the average YTD SAAR of 140k. It is likely that LMCA will further raise the forecast in the coming months. The VAMA, the local automotive association, has projected sales of 140k.