The ACEA figures show that the EU passenger car market continued its growth momentum in September, with a 9.8% y/y increase to 1,356,868 units. This marked the 24th consecutive month of growth.

Robust growth was seen in all the top five major Western European passenger car markets, with Italy and Spain still recovering from historic low base comparisons.

IHS noted that there were a number of factors that supported growth during the month over and above the steady economic recovery in the region. September marked the end of the third quarter and therefore there was the usual effort by OEMs and dealers to meet sales targets and pre-register as many cars as possible. In addition, there was the usual age-related plated change in the UK during the month, which further bolstered sales and it added that Spain continues to be fuelled by scrappage, although the funds are expected to be exhausted soon.

Commenting on the wider conditions in the market, Carlos Da Silva, manager for IHS Automotive's European light-vehicle sales forecast, said: "Of course these factors would not suffice if, generally speaking, the social and economic situation in Europe was not significantly better than it was before. This is undoubtedly the case when looking five or six years back. It still stands true even when comparing to last year. This is not to say that Europe (and the Eurozone in particular) has become a gold mine overnight. Yet economic tensions have reduced markedly: credit availability is improving, energy costs are subdued, even unemployment is pointing down. This all combines to broadly improve the Europeans sentiment: as a piece of evidence, customers’ confidence in the region has been at its highest level since 2007 for the past few months. Autos markets throughout the zone are quite normally benefiting from this environment."

However, Mr Da Silva also pointed out that the current positive picture is somewhat relative due to the consistent and comparatively significant monthly rises as a result of the low base that has already gone before.

"The market is still largely in recovery, catch up mode. Current healthy monthly growth rates are most probably not likely to remain as high for an extended period of time. Normalization, with more natural levels of demand, will end up taking over. This is unless some disruptive event happens in the meantime…" IHS added that the VW emissions affair is not believed to fit this category.

"Of course Volkswagen itself will suffer in Europe (if only from reputational damage in the very first stage) and diesel in general, as a European specificity, will be hurt somewhat. Purchase behaviours, preferences, mixes… will certainly change faster than anticipated previously. But, as of today, we do not consider this can derail the market and pose a serious threat to its ongoing recovery."

IHS added that it is looking at a full-year forecast for 2015 passenger car sales in the EU of 7% to 13.4 million units which would mean a slight slowdown in growth recorded in the last quarter of the year, although this overall figure is still significantly down on previous highs.