European car market expands at slowest rate for 12 months
According to LMC, one fewer selling day in November 2014 versus November 2013 helps account for the rather lacklustre year‐on‐ year result for last month. The Seasonally Adjusted Annualised Rate of sales, which takes into account selling day factors, stood at 12.3 million units/year. While this is weaker than the (revised) 12.7 million units/year for October, in the context of the full year result for 2014 — expected to be 12.1 million units for the region — it still represents progress.
It added that from a few months ago, the economic outlook for Western Europe is now weaker, though a gradual pick‐up in GDP growth is still assumed over the next few years. An improving economy should continue to support the recovery of the region's car market, although LMCA forecasts a slower pace of growth for 2015 versus 2014
UK registrations grew strongly once again, up 8% year‐on‐year. The UK market will have contributed to well over a third of the region's volume growth for the 2014 full year. LMCA added that it expects the UK market to make a much smaller contribution to the region's volume growth over coming years – it effectively having already fully recovered to pre‐Great Recession levels – but the market has continued to strengthen recently. A strong economic performance and competitive car deals are among factors helping support the market.
Last month, registrations were a little lower in both Germany and France. The selling rate in Germany eased back to 3.0 million units/year from the 3.2 million units/year recorded the previous month. The French selling rate slipped back to under 1.8 million units/year. The results highlight that the recovery in new car demand remains fragile in the region.
In Spain, the PIVE scrappage incentive scheme has been extended again. The selling rate for the last couple of months has been comfortably above 900,000 units/year, setting it up well for further growth heading into 2015.
Registrations in Italy were a little higher, with the selling rate above 1.4 million units/year for a second month, though the potential remains for somewhat stronger growth once economic conditions become more supportive.
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