The commentary comes as part of the report on “Caution: Blind Curves Ahead: The AlixPartners Global Automotive Outlook” by the global business-advisory firm.

In the report, the firm says that though industry sales in other global regions have largely recovered from the financial-crisis era, Europe’s market last year was still down 19from its historical sales peak of 2007.

Moreover, the AlixPartners study shows that markets in southern and South-eastern Europe are still down more than 35% vs. 2007, with some countries even experiencing drops of over 50%. That compares with declines of 5 to 15% in heavily industrialized Western Europe. Meanwhile, finds the study, the biggest growth markets in Europe are Turkey, up more than 25% compared to 2007, and Russia, up 10-15%. The study points out, however, that Russia, like some other growth markets today, is also a volatile place, and therefore that its continued growth shouldn’t be taken for granted.

For the period until 2020, AlixPartners expects European light vehicle sales to remain virtually flat within a band of 18-19 million vehicles sold, due to still-unresolved economic problems in the Eurozone including stagnating wages and high levels of unemployment and longer-term macro trends such as urbanization, together with the decreasing role of the car as a status symbol and Europe’s ageing society.

While the total number of automotive plants has been reduced by 10 in the US since 2007, the net number of plants in Europe has actually grown by one. Consequently, according to the study, the share of plants in Europe operating below breakeven level went up from 40% in 2007 to 57%, down only slightly from 58% in last year’s study. Meanwhile, average plant utilization in Europe, says the study, is at a dangerous level of 70%, vs. 92% plant utilization in the US. According to the study, most of the underutilized European plants can be found in Italy, Spain and Russia, whereas Czech Republic, German and UK plants have less unused capacity.

In total, the study shows that Western Europe has closed seven plants since 2007, while Eastern Europe has opened eight new plants.

‘The European car market is not likely to recover soon, thus near-term growth is unlikely to cure the underutilization issue in Europe,’ said Stefano Aversa. ‘Those waiting for the tide to rise enough to lift their boat may be waiting forever.’