That’s the finding of new data from retail information specialist Verdict Retail which warns that the recovery is not being evenly distributed across the continent.

The firm says that strong performances in the Western and Eastern European markets, which are expected to grow by 3.5% and 2.1% respectively, have been artificially boosted by huge discounts and self-registrations by dealers.

Overall Europe has been tempered by weaker performances in the Southern European markets which are expected to post a decline of -1.5% in 2013.

By 2015, Volkswagen is expected to be one of the dominant manufacturers in the emerging markets, which includes the BRIC nations, South Africa, Argentina and Turkey. Verdict’s forecasts show that there will be over 25 million Volkswagens in these markets by 2015, a position achieved partly by the manufacturer’s willingness to enter new markets at an early stage in their economic development.

It’s not just the emerging markets where Volkswagen has achieved market ubiquity – the company’s Polo is a strong presence in each of the leading five European markets, with over 7 million new Polos forecast to be registered by 2015.

Verdict’s vehicle parc figures also highlight changes in the type of car that motorists favour; motorists are increasingly looking to purchase more fuel efficient and cleaner vehicles.

• The number of new petrol cars registered has decreased almost universally
• Germany is the only European market which still sells more petrol cars than diesel
• Verdict’s figures indicate that by 2017, diesel will account for 47% of all new registrations in the German market, up from 30% in 2009
• Diesel registrations expected to increase; accounting for 61% of all new registrations in the leading five European markets by 2017.

Sales of electric vehicles (EVs) are also forecast to increase; Verdict predicts that the registration of EVs in the UK will double between 2012 and 2015, the largest increase in sales of any of the leading five European markets.

‘These changes to the vehicle parc will have major implications for all auto manufacturers,’ said Melanie Atkinson, a senior analyst with Verdict. ‘As more motorists make the switch to diesel powered or electrically powered vehicles, the manufacturers will need to keep up with expectation by providing feasible and efficient options to consumers. Alongside this they will be expected to meet increasingly stringent emissions legislation, meaning that innovation is more important than ever.’

Although the number of new cars being registered is beginning to recover, many motorists across Europe are keeping their cars for longer, a trend that is particularly prevalent in Eastern Europe. Here, over 50% of vehicles in Romania and Ukraine will be over eight years old by 2015. In Hungary, the trend is even more extreme, with over 70% of vehicles being over eight years old by 2015.

‘Motorists who hold onto their cars for longer periods of time impact the number of new vehicle registrations – a legitimate concern for vehicle manufacturers,’ says Melanie Atkinson. ‘Government initiatives which encourage the replacement of cars, such as scrappage schemes, cannot be maintained consistently so dealerships are taking matters into their own hands, but this has caused its own problems.

‘In the UK, strong sales figures have been encouraged by the promotion of finance deals and considerable discounting which guarantees sales figures, but does little for a company’s bottom line. Having a detailed understanding of how a country treats its cars would allow companies to plan and implement their business strategy with precision.’