Forecasted residual values remained consistent across the six nations surveyed in the latest experteye European Leasing Index. Portugal reported the highest rise, albeit at only +2.8%. This was followed by France (+2%), Spain (+1.8%), UK (+1.8%), Italy (+0.6%) and Germany (0.3%) all showing very marginal increments. 

Budgeted servicing, maintenance and repair (SMR) costs showed slightly more movement, with Italy reporting a +4.9% hike. The UK followed with a +3.8% increase, with France close behind at 3.5%. Spain however showed little movement with a marginal 1.8% increase, with Germany (-0.8%) and Portugal (-2%) reducing their costs.

The latest experteye European Leasing Index report, which tracks forecasted RVs, maintenance costs and rental rates in six European countries, uses data supplied by major leasing companies in each market. 

Of the six countries surveyed, it is French fleet customers who continue to see the largest increases in rental costs. Otherwise, the market remained relatively flat with very small changes to rentals. 

Market summaries – 3 and 12 months to October 2011

France: France is continuing to report the biggest hikes in rental costs – between August and October costs have risen by +2.4% and there has been a 12-month rise of +5.5%. SMR budgets have risen by +4.8% across the 12 months, the second highest increase of all nations surveyed, but optimism is improving in the future used vehicle market with a +5.1% rise in forecasted RVs for the year.

Germany: German optimism in the future used vehicle market has calmed in the last quarter with a +0.3% rise; the lowest increase of all nations surveyed. Across the 12 months, however, Germany has remained the second most optimistic market with a +5.7% rise in forecasted RVs. SMR budgets have seen very little change with a +0.3% rise across the last 12 months and a -0.8% drop in the last quarter. Rental rates have reduced by -2.1% since November 2010, with a -0.4% reduction in the last quarter.

Italy: After being the only nation to report a fall in forecasted RVs across both the three and 12-month periods in the last Experteye survey, Italy has now shown a very small increase, up by +0.6% in the last quarter. Across the 12-month period, however, they are still down by -1.6%. Italy tops the league table for increases to SMR budgets with a +4.9% hike in the last quarter and a +7.7% rise for the year. Yet, there was almost no change to rental costs (-0.1%) in the last year and a small +1.3% rise in the last quarter.

Portugal: Portugal has shown the most optimism in the future used vehicle market of late with a +2.8% improvement in forecasted RVs in the last quarter. Across the year, however, there was a nominal +0.5% rise in RVs. It has also cut its SMR budgets the most with a -2% reduction in the last quarter although, even with improving RVs and lower SMR budgets, rentals have continued to rise with a +1.3% increase for the quarter, and +1.6% for the year.

Spain: Spanish customers continue to enjoy the largest drop in rental rates across the 12 months, with a -5% reduction, continuing the trend from the last Experteye survey. Otherwise, the picture is stable, with forecasted RVs increasing by +2.6% for the year, and +1.8% for the last quarter. SMR budgets have come down by -2% since November 2010 but are back up slightly (+1.8%) in the last quarter.

The UK: Optimism in the future used vehicle market has remained high over the last year in the UK, with a +9.2% rise in predicted RVs; the highest of all nations surveyed. This has calmed in the last quarter with a smaller +1.8% increase. The good news for operators is that there has been no increase to rental rates in the last quarter, albeit a small +0.3% rise across the year. Budgeted SMR is rising though with a +3.8% increase in the last quarter, and a +4.6% rise across the year.

Notes. 

The comparisons are for vehicles with a contract duration of 36 months / 90,000km with the exception of Portugal (48 months / 120,000km)

12-month comparisons show change since November 2010.

Three-month comparisons show change since August 2011. 

Rental rate changes compare the rates in effect at the time of the survey with those in effect three or 12 months ago.

RV and SMR changes show the change in participating leasing companies' forecasts of residual values and maintenance costs over the period.