French passenger car market declines but Italy & Spain rise
According to the latest data released by the French Automobile Manufacturers' Association (CCFA), registrations have fallen by 4.8% year on year (y/y) to 169,788 units, not helped by the difference in the number of working days during the month this year. With this taken into account, the number of light vehicles sold actually rose 6.4% y/y. Nevertheless, this has done little to lift the year to date (YTD), which has now grown by just 2.9% y/y to 942,526 units.
The figures come as the Italian and Spanish passenger car markets report increases of 10.8% and 14.0% y/y respectively during May. The Italian market has grown on a general need to replace vehicles, while the Spanish market's gains were underpinned by the scrapping incentive and a general improvement in the economy.
IHS Automotive commented on the figures, with Ian Fletcher highlighting that the number of working days this month has had a significantly adverse impact on the French market but also adding that it could be settling down to a new normal, as from an economic perspective, following a strong first quarter, activity is expected to moderate over the coming quarters.
Although the economy is expected to continue growing in the remainder of the year, boosted by muted inflation, a weak euro, extremely loose monetary conditions, improving confidence levels, and gradually easing credit conditions, the economy is still facing many headwinds.
He added that overall, IHS Automotive expects French passenger car registrations to increase by over 2.5% y/y to 1.845 million units supported by a better economic cycle and favourable product momentum, particularly from the French brands. It also currently expects LCV demand to grow by just under 3.5% y/y during 2015 to around 384,600 units. This would still leave both these categories below the pre-crisis average, and although further improvements will come, it could be several more years before earlier levels are reached.
The company added that it anticipates that the Italian market will increase by over 5.5% y/y to 1.45 million units while there is an expectation that the Spanish market will break through the 1 million unit barrier again.
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