The January figures from the German Federal Motor Transport Authority show that January sales were up to to 211.337 units. Around two-thirds of these sales were included in fleet sales with the fuel split of January's sales at 50.8% for diesel passenger cars and 47.7% y/y for gasoline (petrol) cars. Plug-in hybrids experienced an increase in sales of 323.6% y/y thanks to the launch of models such as the Audi A3 e-Tron in the last 12 months but overall sales volumes are still small while pure electric vehicles only saw a 21.6% y/y rise in sales in the month. The KBA also reported that the fleet average emissions of the passenger cars sold in Germany in January fell by 3.6% to 130.4 g/km.

In response, Tim Urquhart of IHS said the German passenger car market is currently exhibiting stable growth which mirrors the stable and relatively robust ongoing status of the German economy. The first month of 2015 almost exactly mirrored the full-year combined increase in sales volumes in 2014 of 2.8% y/y. The January sales tally was also higher than the 2013 sales total, which also indicates a general and mild upward trend.

He added: ‘This is all broadly positive but there is also little doubt that the German market is also an extremely competitive environment in which original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and brands operate, and it is still very much an incentive- and discount-driven market, especially for retail consumers. German private and fleet buyers have the confidence to make purchases but they are also looking for a good, maybe even exceptional, deal.’

Looking at the outlook for 2015, Mr Urquhart said: ‘The main risks to the German economy remain geo-political and not economic, with the respective crisis in Ukraine and the Middle East continuing to loom large. These caused a growth pause in the middle months of 2014 but these jitters appear to have been overcome now, with annualised growth forecast to return to a pace of 1.5–2.0% in the first quarter of 2015, as has been indicated by fairly convincing rebounds in November and December 2014 and by improvements in the purchasing managers' index. The latest macro forecast by IHS foresees the German economy strengthening from 0.2% in 2013 to 1.5% in 2014, 1.6% in 2015, and 1.9% in 2016. There are a steady stream of new model launches coming onto the market this year which should also act as a further ongoing stimulus for the market, with these including the aforementioned new Opel Corsa and Karl, the new VW Passat, and the new Tiguan coming later in the year. The latest Audi A4 and revised BMW 3-Series should also bring customers into showrooms later in the year.’

The firm concluded that for 2015 it forecasts a very mild uplift in a market that will remain very stable and consistent, with a 1.3% y/y rise to 3.09 million passenger cars, further rising to a high this decade of 3.21 million units in 2019.