Global light vehicle demand shows slowdown in July
The firm’s data shows that despite the slowdown, the figure remains comfortably ahead of year-ago levels. The Seasonally Adjusted Annualised Rate (SAAR) of sales stood at 82.2 million units/year.
The US market continues its path of recovery, with a SAAR of nearly 15.8 million units/year. Sales were up 14% versus July 2012 and up 8.5% through the first seven months of 2013, as the US economy continues to improve. Robust truck sales continued in July, outpacing car sales. The Large Pickup segment maintained the strong sales pace seen so far this year, with sales up 24.0%.
In addition, Canada’s Light Vehicle sales picked up well in July, up 7.1%, with the selling rate standing at 1.7 million units/year.
Although not quite as strong as the previous month, the selling rate in Western Europe, at 12.8 million units/year, is still better than earlier in the year. The UK remains the best performer in terms of year-on-year growth among the major markets. Spain continues to be supported by the recently extended scrappage incentives.
The Russian Light Vehicle market continues to be a cause for concern. Sales fell back 8%, with the selling rate dropping below 2.6 million units/year — although the recently introduced loan interest subsidy scheme should give support to the market from September. Thankfully, better results came in for Turkey and Poland, with the Czech Republic also pushing higher, helped to a degree by calendar effects.
Looking at China, according to preliminary data, the July selling rate was 21.0 million units/year, down nearly 4% from a record-high in June. Yet the selling rate averaged a robust 21.0 million units/year so far this year, indicating that consumers’ appetite for new vehicles has not been dented by the economy’s slowdown. There is a possibility that sales are being pulled ahead on an expectation that the government will impose purchasing restrictions in some cities.
The Japanese market continued to lose steam on the back of waning expectations for Abenomics, the volatile stock market, and rising prices of daily items. In July, the selling rate slipped back to below 5 million units/year for the first time since December.
In South Korea, fiscal stimulus measures seem to have helped boost sales in July, with the selling rate accelerating to 1.6 million units/year, the highest rate so far this year. Yet weak exports and the ongoing labour dispute at Hyundai may undermine sales in the coming months.
Within South America, the selling rate in Brazil picked up slightly to 3.7 mn units/year in July after two consecutive months of month-over-month decline. The market has shown resilience in the face of high inflation, rising interest rates, and the deteriorating financial markets.
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