Global light vehicle sales move up a gear in May, says LMCA

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The firm’s latest data shows that sales rose 4.8% last month to 7,446,803 units from 7,105,067 in May last year. Year to date, sales are up 4,4% to 36, 464,615 units from 34 ,917,899 for the first five months of 2014.

LMCA added that the seasonally adjusted annualised rate of sales in May hit near-record levels of 87.6 million units/year, only slightly below the peaks of late last year.

In the US, a number of positive factors for light vehicles came together to produce a strong selling rate of over 17 million units/year in May, representing a full recovery to pre-crisis levels. LMCA says it does not expect such a strong market to be sustained for the full year but a solid result appears to be in prospect for this year.

In Canada, meanwhile, light vehicle sales were up almost 6% in an already strong market. With an estimated selling rate of 1.9 million units/year, a new full-year record is increasingly likely, according to the firm.

West European sales remain on course for a 4-5% increase in 2014. The May result in France and Germany was a little disappointing but this was offset by better performances in Italy and the UK, where the light vehicle selling rate closed in on 2.8 million units/year.

The same improving trends are not at all evident in Central and Eastern Europe where the Russia-Ukraine situation is inflicting damage on markets. The important Russian market, having ended 2013 at a 3.0 million units/year selling rate, has now dipped to a rate of around 2.4 million units/year, thereby losing around 20% of ongoing sales volume. Early signs of a more stable political situation may lead to the market to bottom out soon, but there are clearly significant risks.

According to preliminary data, China’s selling rate in May reached a record high of 23.9 million units/year, accelerating from a downwardly revised 23.0 million units/year in April. On a year-over-year basis, sales increased by 11% in May. Sales are continuing to be boosted by “panic buying” on the expectation that an increasing number of major cities will impose purchasing restrictions to reduce air pollution.

There are, however, reports that inventory at the dealer level has risen, which suggests that some slowdown in sales ahead. In the economy, the central bank has been increasing liquidity in the market to prop up economic growth, which, along with the government’s mini-stimulus measures, may help support vehicle sales.

In Japan, sales have been resilient since the consumption tax was raised on April 1st. The May selling rate was a stronger-than-expected 5.2 million units/year, up marginally after a 15% (month- over-month) decline in April. Yet such a pace may not be sustainable, as income growth is not catching up with rising inflation. The positive impact of the “Abenomics” has also faded.

In South Korea, the selling rate moderated to 1.6 million units/year in May from an exceptionally strong April. However, the sustainability of such a robust pace is in question, as the country’s large export sector continues to struggle and the unemployment rate is rising.

In Brazil, the May selling rate of 3.4 million units/year was slightly higher than expected, but June and July are expected to see a marked slowdown, as consumers will be busy watching the World Cup soccer games. Inflation has continued to rise which, along with high interest rates, should continue to constrain spending on new vehicles this year.

In Argentina, sales plunged by over 35% year on year for the third consecutive month in May along with a deteriorating economy. Rampant inflation, a weakening job market, and the rising prospect of a financial crisis continue to depress consumer confidence and vehicle sales, LMCA said.

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Natalie Middleton

Natalie has worked as a fleet journalist for nearly 20 years, previously as assistant editor on the former Company Car magazine before joining Fleet World in 2006. Prior to this, she worked on a range of B2B titles, including Insurance Age and Insurance Day. Natalie edits all the Fleet World websites and newsletters, and loves to hear about any latest industry news - or gossip.

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