That’s the forecast from IHS Automotive, which will presenting its findings at the IHS Forum in Berlin (12-14 May).

The firm says that global vehicle production has already grown by 25 million units since 2009 as the industry continues to recover from the impact of the global economic recession, with the industry set for further growth.

China will dominate in future growth, but there is a considerable upside attached to the North American industry as it attracts foreign investment, and in the European industry as its domestic markets climb back. Japanese and South Korean production will decline as local OEMs focus their efforts overseas.

The firm also says that European production growth will be limited to 1% this year due to declining vehicle demand in Russia and Turkey but from 2015 to 2017 European output is expected to increase by 4% per year, led by the recovery of domestic demand and sustainable increase in exports, primarily to the US and China.

While it currently consumes 70% of European production, Western European demand will contribute only 50% of production growth expected by 2021. Of this share, more than a half will come from Spain and Italy as they recover from enormous losses experienced during the years of recession.

‘European car makers will meet divergent demand environments, depending on which part of Europe they are more exposed to,’ said Denis Schemoul, manager Europe vehicle production forecasting, IHS Automotive.

‘Segments are changing globally as the emerging markets tip the balance and mature markets come under pressure to downsize,’ said Mark Fulthorpe, director global vehicle production forecasting at IHS Automotive, who will be presenting these findings and additional automotive industry insight during a joint presentation with Denis Schemoul during the upcoming IHS Forum in Berlin on 13th May.