The commentary comes as part of the report on "Caution: Blind Curves Ahead: The AlixPartners Global Automotive Outlook" by the global business-advisory firm.

In its report the firm says that the crisis of 2007/2008 is near overcome for the global automotive industry, with revenues last year up 11% since 2007, and average OEM EBITDA margins stable at around 10%. The study forecasts continued growth of worldwide light vehicle sales from today’s 83 million cars per year to 109 million units by 2023. This equates to an increase of 31% within the next 10 years and annual compound growth of some 2.8%.

SUVs will continue to grow strongly in China, according to the study, but are close to their peak in most other markets. More than half of the expected growth can be attributed to traditional cars. Another theory rejected by AlixPartners’ study is the advent of the age of the micro-car. Instead, close to 70% of the industry’s global growth within the next 10 years will be in the B and C segments, commonly known as small and medium-sized cars.

However, all of the growth markets identified by the study also hold tangible risks for car manufacturers. In the US signs are looming for a peak-car scenario that could prevent expected growth rates from becoming reality. Brazil’s economic development is endangered by rising taxes, inflationary tendencies and currency devaluation. The Indian market has proven to be an unfulfilled prophecy in the past, and growth will be mainly attributable to the low-cost car market. And in Russia the positive sales outlook could be clouded by a confrontation scenario with the West as the Ukraine crisis continues to be unresolved.

In China the primary risks for future automotive growth are seen in possible regulatory interventions. Urban congestion and pollution may lead more cities to restrict car registrations. Seven Chinese cities are already raffling car licences or parking lots, or hinge car licensing on the possession of a parking lot. Six more cities have indicated plans to introduce similar restrictions. The ubiquitous Chinese government plans to achieve a 50% inland market share for domestic auto brands – but current figures suggest it will reach only 40%. Thus, international car manufacturers might have to face obstacles posed by various regulatory measures in the future. Such measures could, for example, come in the form of privileges for micro-cars in urban environments under the pretence of lowering emissions and reducing the amount of urban space required. Chinese domestic car brands are strong in the entry-level segment, but weak in the middle and high-end segments.

‘Participating in worldwide automotive growth will entail higher risks in the years to come,’ said the firm’s Stefano Aversa. ‘To mitigate these risks, international car manufacturers need to balance their exposure.’