Indonesia’s sharp reduction hampered regional outlook, says LMC Automotive
The company says the year‐on‐year decrease was mainly due to the continued contraction in Thailand, while the month‐on‐month decrease was mainly contributed to by sharp seasonal reductions in Indonesia and Malaysia.
In its report, LMC Automotive said: ‘Sales in Thailand, in fact, slightly increased from the previous month. Thailand registered the largest sales in the region at around 96k, after temporarily losing top position to Indonesia for the first time in July. Sales have been decreasing from April after the spill over effect from last year’s special car buying scheme has faded. Sales have fallen to below the 100k level for only the second time in 14 months.
‘The small recovery in monthly sales in Thailand was mainly seen in the sub‐compact segment, following the launch of the new Mitsubishi Attrage, and due to a sales recovery of the Chevrolet Sonic. The recovery prompted us to slightly adjust our outlook for 2013 upward to around 1.28 million units, but still lower than the previous year by 8.5%.
‘Similar to the previous month, sales in both Indonesia and Malaysia moved in the same direction. After the end of the Hari Raya festival and the long holiday which follows, sales sharply dipped in contrast to historically high sales in both markets, driven by strong demand prior to the festival in the previous month. Sales were around 70k and 51k respectively.
‘While the dip in Malaysia followed our expectation, the dip in Indonesia was stronger than we had expected. Therefore, we have marginally adjusted the 2013 outlook for Indonesia downward to around 1.07 million units, a 5.7% increase, but we have retained the Malaysian outlook at around 634k.
‘OEMs have witnessed the decreases in both markets intensifying, especially month‐on‐month, with the already decreasing sales being hit further by the contraction in Thailand. The three markets combined accounted for more than 90% of the regional sales. Toyota was clearly affected by this as it holds more than 30% of the regional market share.
‘Regardless of this, there have been some OEMs that have outperformed others, with a few even able to obtain growth with some models. For example in Malaysia in August, the City drove sales of Honda upwards by 25%, and the Almera helped Nissan’s sales improve by 72%.
‘On a smaller scale, sales in the Philippines and Vietnam recorded significant growth year‐on‐year. In the former market, strong sales continued, although falling below the 16k level for the first time since February 2013. Sales were driven by the Toyota Vios and the Innova. We have kept the outlook for the market at around 200k this year.Sales also continued on the recovery path in Vietnam at just above 7k. This was the fifth straight month with steady growth. ‘The increase was most significant in the pickup segment, with sales more than doubling on the previous year. The Ford Ranger was the most sold pickup during the month. The model also outperformed the long‐time best seller, the Toyota Hilux. We expect annual sales in the market to be around 99k.’
The firm concluded: ‘In total, our outlook for the whole region is around 3.3 million units, marginally lower than the previous outlook due to the sharp decrease in Indonesia.’
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