The research by Cambridge Econometrics, the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) and Pöyry Management Consulting has been published by the European Climate Foundation have published to assess the additional economic impacts if low-carbon transport policy was adopted at a global scale, and led to lower oil prices in the future.

The Oil Market Futures analysis finds that that vehicle efficiency standards implemented globally between 2000-2015 have already prevented the consumption of around 5 billion barrels of oil.

By 2050, policies that push vehicle efficiency and electric-drive technologies into the market and reduce fuel consumption of aircraft and marine vessels could reduce annual oil consumption after its peak in 2025, and avert a doubling of transportation oil demand from 2015 to 2050 that is projected under a business-as-usual scenario.

It added that this reduction in demand delays the need to invest in extracting increasingly expensive oil from non-conventional sources, and the long-term market price of oil would settle around a stable band between $83 and $87 per barrel from 2030 to 2050. The report explains that the global deployment of technologies to mitigate CO2 emissions would cause oil prices to be lower than they would otherwise be in a business-as-usual scenario: Around 8.5% lower in 2030; 24% lower in 2040; and 33% lower in 2050, according to the results of this analysis.

Phil Summerton, director at Cambridge Econometrics, said: “In a world where climate policies are being implemented to drive investment in low-carbon technologies – as they have too and as governments agreed in Paris – we’ll simply need less oil for transport. Through policy support and technological disruption, we can expect the global economy to be using 11 million fewer barrels of oil per day by 2030. This rises to 60 million in 2050. This will have profound impacts, but the advantages are clear and by moving early the benefit can be maximised.”