June car sales rise 14.2% in Western Europe but 'Grexit' poses concern, reports LMCA
The data shows that strong year‐on‐year growth was seen in all Big Five markets in the region, with France up 15.0%, the UK and Germany up 12.9%, Italy up 14.4% and Spain up 23.5%.
Overall the selling rate climbed to 13.2 million units/year. France's selling rate was above 2 million units/year for the first time in three years, Spain's selling rate surpassed 1 million units/year once again, and Germany's selling rate stood at 3.3 million units/year. The UK market continued to improve, helped by attractive financing offers.
However, LMCA said the threat that the West European economic and car market recovery will be knocked off course over the coming months has increased sharply in recent weeks as Greece steps ever closer to leaving the Eurozone.
It added: “While a collapse in the Greek car market itself would not have a significant impact at the West European total car market level, a greater issue is the potential contagion coming from a Greek euro exit, which could impact the banking sector, bond yields and consumer confidence generally. That scenario could well see the Eurozone plunge back into recession, with car market growth in the region unwinding in 2016.
“There remains great uncertainty what will happen next in Greece, and therefore the potential path that economic growth will take. At this stage, we do not assume contagion as part of our base forecast, but rather a moderation of growth in the Eurozone over the latter half of 2015 and into 2016.”
LMCA added: “We have adjusted the car market forecast down slightly for 2015 to 12.8 million units (from 12.9 million units) in view of a moderation in the outlook for economic growth. However, with such a strong first half, the 12.1 million units achieved in 2014 will still comfortably be eclipsed.”
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