LMC Automotive lifts 2014 forecast as West European car market puts in strong performance in October
Latest data from the firm shows that the selling rate of 11.9 million units/year for October is at a level not seen since the middle of last year, leading the firm to forecast that the market will pick up a little quicker in 2014, though as demand is currently down over 20% on 2007 levels, the market will remain weak in historical terms. LMC Automotive forecasts 2014 volume expanding to 11.8 million units/year.
Looking at inviduvual markets, car registrations in Germany were a little higher in October than the same month a year ago, with the selling rate once again above the 3.0 million units/year mark. This is a more promising result as we head towards 2014, though a full‐year fall for 2013 is almost assured.
The selling rate in France climbed above the 1.9 million units/year mark for the first time in 2013, a further sign that this car market is also finally turning a corner.
However, the Italian car market suffered another year‐on‐year decline, as the selling rate hovered just above 1.3 million units/year.
The Spanish selling rate stood at 830,000 units/year for October, easily the best result of the year. The PIVE scheme has now been extended for the fourth time and continues to be a major support to that market. With the
Spanish economy finally beginning to move into positive territory in Q3 (albeit, only just) and consumer confidence beginning to improve, there are positive signs for the market to slowly pick up in 2014, assuming that scrappage support is further extended while the Government believes it to be necessary.
The UK car market once again did well, with private sales continuing to lead the charge. The rate of growth slowed last month, and is in keeping with LMCA’s view of the market continuing to grow, but at a more modest pace.
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