That’s the view of Frost & Sullivan, which has published its ‘Strategic Analysis of the Medium- to Heavy-duty Natural Gas Commercial Vehicle Market in Europe’, showing that NG truck and bus penetration will reach an estimated 3.4% and 12.7%, respectively by 2018, with production levels of nearly 18,000 units.

The research says that of all alternative NG technologies, compressed natural gas (CNG) and biomethane technologies pose the least pressure on existing infrastructure.

It adds that spark-ignited technology will account for around 90% of commercially manufactured NG buses, while compressed ignition technology will dominate the liquefied natural gas (LNG) truck market with around 60% share. The heavy-duty segment is set to account for 75% of NG truck sales, with LNG being a dominant fuel option.

‘OEMs need to develop market and application focused technologies that complement current state of natural gas infrastructure with forward compatibility with upcoming CNG/LNG infrastructure. Focus should also be on supply chains that enable reduction of upfront cost associated with these vehicles, which are currently perceived by many potential customers as being prohibitive,’ noted Frost & Sullivan automotive & transportation consulting analyst Saideep Sudhakar.

‘However, OEMs and suppliers are working both independently and synergistically, through a combination of vertical and virtual integration, to add growth momentum to this steady, evolving market segment.’

The company added that OEMs’ willingness to differentiate products through technology partnerships is leading toward increasing focus on compression ignition and dual fuel technologies. Compression ignition would facilitate the use of NG vehicles for long haul application, which would compensate for the higher upfront cost – provided the fuel infrastructure and diesel NG price differential exists.

In future, the margins for module suppliers will shrink, and the same will happen for component suppliers when OEMs begin exerting pricing pressures as volumes start to grow. Duty cycle restriction of NG vehicles can be overcome through concerted strategies aimed at developing vehicles and products that deliver highest efficiencies in certain targeted vocations and duty cycles along with necessary fuel infrastructure.

‘OEMs need to develop duty cycle focused product platforms and collaborate with fuel suppliers and governments to create a favourable environment for the adoption of NG vehicles by fleet owners,’ concluded Mr Sudhakar. ‘Suppliers need to focus on vertical integration to ensure sustainable growth and development of the market’.