New car and LCV sales down 12% in Russia
In total, 201,487 new vehicles were sold last month; 28,019 fewer than in May 2013.
The market has been badly hit by Russia’s troubled economy and the political problems over the Ukraine.
‘Overall market dynamics in April-May are very similar to the same period last year, marking two consecutive years of sales decline,’ said Joerg Schreiber, chairman of the AEB's Automobile Manufacturers Committee.
‘To put things in perspective: In the record year 2012, combined sales in the April-May period exceeded current market performance by 19%. Industry consensus is there are no reasons to believe in fundamental trend reversal any time soon.
‘The best scenario under the given circumstances appears to be the absence of a further trend deterioration. June shall give us a clue about where the market is headed moving into the second half of the year.’
Commenting on the news, IHS Automotive said: ‘The weakness that the Russian light-vehicle market is currently experiencing accelerated further in May, despite the relatively low base comparison which already existed last year. To put things into context, the sales volume recorded during April-May 2012 was 19% higher, which highlights the current weak sentiment in the market. Negative macroeconomic factors continue to exert downward pressure on the market, with the weak rouble seeing a rise in price generally while consumer confidence also remains weak.
‘There is still significant macroeconomic and geopolitical pressures on the wider Russian economy. The currency, which suffered in early 2014 from sell-offs of rouble assets, is under pressure now from accelerated capital flight in the wake of the tensions over the annexation of Crimea and pro-Russian unrest in Eastern Ukraine; the Central Bank of Russia is concerned about financial stability. The rouble has suffered periodically in the last two years as turmoil hit international capital markets. Further concerns were raised in early 2014 by disappointing growth in a number of the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) countries, while the rouble lost further ground earlier this year owing to rising tension with the EU as well as reports of wholesale corruption in connection with the Sochi Olympics. As Russia sent forces into Crimea and the West levied economic sanctions, the rouble dived once again.
‘IHS expects the rouble to regain some strength from 2015 onward should geopolitical tensions ease and as appetite for risk in emerging markets returns, although further narrowing of the current-account surplus is anticipated into the medium term. These factors will conspire to keep the Russian light-vehicle market pegged back in 2014 and may also act as a brake for further foreign investment in the local automotive industry. The latest IHS Automotive forecast sees the Russian light-vehicle market at 2.59 million units for 2014, down from 2.79 million units in 2013.’
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