That’s the prediction from IHS Automotive, following the referendum result.

The firm said the UK is, unsurprisingly, anticipated to bear the brunt of the impact. IHS predicts that the market will remain up in the full year of 2016, but by just 1% year on year (y/y) to around 3.045 million units, versus the 3.2% y/y gain that had previously been anticipated. The declines that were already forecast to take place during 2017 and 2018 are now expected to be steeper. Registrations of light vehicles are now forecast to fall by 9.1% y/y to 2.758 million, rather than a 3.5% y/y decline. For 2018, registrations are now expected to hit 2.71 million units versus the 2.94 million units for our pre-referendum forecast.

In addition, the firm says its Western European forecast will now fall during the next two years despite further gains during 2016. Although light-vehicle registrations will grow by around 5.0% y/y this year to 15.64 million units, this will be behind the 15.75 million units that was expected. Furthermore, registrations in 2017 are expected to dip by 1.2% y/y to 15.45 million units, compared to the increase to 15.98 million that had been expected. During 2018, the situation is now expected to be flat at 15.45 million units rather than standing at 15.95 million units as was expected.

On a global basis, IHS also now expects growth to be less substantial over the next few years. During the current year, light-vehicle registrations are now seen to be 89.82 million units, an increase of 2.0% y/y, although this is below the 90.02 million units originally forecast. While a further gain of 1.4% y/y to 91.06 million units is anticipated in 2017, this is around 1.25 million units behind what had been originally anticipated. IHS also sees global sales hitting 93.12 million units in 2018, versus the previous forecast of 94.5 million units.

IHS added that these early indications are based upon the initial macro forecasts published by the firm on the impact that the leave vote will have, and are based on a medium-to-hard Brexit scenario.