So says IHS Automotive as latest data from the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA) shows that the European passenger car market posted accelerated growth of 14.6% y/y in June to 1,364,009 units which in turn helped the first-half sales in the region rise by an extremely healthy 8.2% to 7,169,984 units.

IHS said the H1 result was caused by a positive calendar effect opposite to that which caused neutral growth in May, with most of the major markets in the region experiencing two extra selling days.

The firm added that the positive calendar effect that was a feature of the Western European market in June fuelled strong results across the region's major markets. Western Europe's number one passenger car market Germany posted a 12.9% y/y rise during the month to 313,539 units during the month, while the UK and France also recorded accelerated sales rises of 12.9% y/y and 15.0% y/y respectively, the former being the 41st consecutive monthly increase. However, there are signs that this extraordinary period of growth may come to an end soon with private demand rising only 2% during the month. Commenting on this IHS Automotive's Colin Couchman said, "Private demand looks… close to saturation point. Buyer fatigue seems to be setting in."

Spain and Italy also recorded extremely robust sales rises of 23.5% y/y and 14.4% y/y respectively. Most markets recorded a double-digit increase as a result of the calendar effect, although among the exceptions were the Netherlands and Poland, while minor markets such as Estonia, Finland and Luxembourg declined.

In terms of OEMs the VW Group put in another very strong performance with Group sales rising by 16.8% y/y in June to 331,244 units, although the YTD rise of 7,2% y/y increase to 1,775,021 units was actually below the overall market rate. The VW brand itself posted a strong result in June with a 17.4% y/y rise to 159,798 units, with an 8.2% y/y increase in the YTD to 867,147 units.

Audi was up 17% in June but its YTD increase across the region was actually significantly below the overall growth rate with an uplift of 4.3%.

Second-placed PSA just fell behind the overall growth rate in June with sales rising 12.8% y/y to 148,932 units, although the Group fell well behind the first-half market growth rate with volumes only rising 3.5% y/y to 767,369 units.

Third-placed Renault significantly underperformed the overall market in June with an increase of only 4.5% y/y to 148,205 units, although its YTD sales improved on the overall market running rate with a 8.9% y/y rise to 713,965 units, which implies Renault has lately pulled back on discounting and incentives.

Ford and Opel scored 16.4% y/y and 7.5% y/y uplifts in June respectively, while Ford managed a 6.8% y/y uplift in the first six months. However, Opel not only failed to keep pace with the overall market, but actually recorded a 0.7% y/y fall in the first six months to 493,338 units, which has to count as a pretty disastrous result given the recent launch of the revised Corsa and the new Adam A-segment city car.

Commenting on the overall trend in June and in the first half, IHS Automotive's Carlos da Silva said: "In trend terms (SAAR), the EU has been on a positive path for months now and this first semester performance has been one of the most robust (growth wise) for a long time too. June is an end-of-quarter month meaning it is typically stronger than normal: dealers (and OEMs) work with quarterly targets and made their possible to reach or pass said targets (often by rushing registrations as much as possible). Usually, strong promotions and commercial operations take place on such months. This was the case this June with quite convincing effects as, for once, private buyers seemed to react. In countries like Germany or France, where Individual buyers had been quite shy (to say the least) so far, a neat improvement was witnessed in this respect. This is all good news if this trend continues, above all this much awaited comeback from private buyers."

Mr Da Silva went on to say that the market's recovery is still fragile, even more so as a result of the ongoing turmoil in Greece. The deal that appears to have been reached over Greece's debt restructuring appears to make a Greek Eurozone exit look less likely but the situation is fluid and is changing all the time. Therefore it is a fact that the level of uncertainty and risk has increased substantially in the recent week. As such IHS Automotive considers that some hints of fear and/or relative destabilisation might be visible in the car sales numbers in the very short term – mostly in August and above all September given that we are following registration numbers.

Yet the company assumes the impact should be limited and will not derail the general growth trend (the case of the Greek market itself is of course different). If there is a major setback during the current negotiations and the various votes in the national parliaments (which could trigger a dramatic turnaround in consumer and business confidence), IHS anticipates that Europe should keep on its positive rhythm, maybe only slowing down a little in the coming months. Therefore as a result of the situation in Greece and higher base levels it seems prudent IHS forecasts of 13.1 million units, a rise of 4.0% y/y looks prudent.