Currently the UK exports over 1.2 million cars per year, with over half going into the EU. The analysis by PA Consulting Group suggests that, if current high levels of uncertainty following the Brexit vote continue, demand and sales could fall by 5 to 10%. 

The research identifies three camps: the ‘leavers’, the ‘question marks’ and the ‘stayers’.

For the leavers, PA says that the plants run by Honda and Toyota are most at risk of closure after Brexit. They are highly reliant on exports to Europe and have relatively low margins and profitability. Combined, they account for approximately 20% of the vehicles made in the UK.

For the question marks, PA identifies MINI and Vauxhall – which although they have a strong British heritage, especially MINI, have EU options.

The firm added that Jaguar Land Rover is a stayer.

Tim Lawrence, head of manufacturing at PA Consulting Group, said: “The current lack of certainty about tariffs places a question mark over the future of a significant number of UK plants and jobs. As the supply chain investment tends to move with Original Equipment Manufacturers’ volumes, the impact on UK jobs and the economy will be felt beyond the automotive industry.

“This uncertainty also comes at a time when automotive technology is changing fast. A lack of overseas investment in new technologies, such as autonomous and electric vehicles, could have a long term impact on the competitiveness of the UK industry.”