The future of urban mobility
All around the globe, people are flocking to cities. In 2007, UN population figures showed that more than half of the world’s population lived in urban areas. That proportion is set to rise to 60% by 2030 and 67% by 2050. This will be accompanied by massive growth in the number of individual journeys taken daily.
If the world fails to change its mobility habits, the future could be bleak: estimates suggest that by 2050, urban dwellers will spend twice as long in traffic jams, air and noise pollution will increase massively, urban mobility systems will use five times more of the planet’s bio capacities than they did in 1990, and overloaded transport infrastructures will present a major obstacle to economic growth.
Thankfully, progress is already being made in many cities, but public financing limitations and system complexity remain challenges. Addressing this requires coordinated effort from many public and private transport stakeholders, and system innovation is the key. Arthur D. Little’s Urban Mobility Index assessed the mobility maturity and performance of 84 cities worldwide, based on a set of 19 criteria. The results show that most cities are badly equipped to cope with the mobility challenge ahead. Although significant progress has been made in areas such as shared mobility, sharing of cars and bikes, penetration of mobility smart cards and development of integrated mobility platforms, cities achieve less than half the potential that could be reached today when applying best practice across all operations.
A comprehensive review of technologies reveals sufficient availability of solutions to address mobility challenges. So, given the scale of the looming crisis, what’s stopping further progress from being made? The two main barriers to superior mobility performance relate to the inadequacy of urban mobility strategies and the fragmented structure of urban mobility systems.
Our research into good practices around the world’s cities shows four key dimensions that need to be addressed to put sustainable urban mobility systems in place:
- Visionary strategy and ecosystem: City authorities need to develop a political vision and clear urban mobility objectives in order to inform strategic priorities and investments. Transport authorities also need to consult, engage and win support from other mobility stakeholders to ensure broad backing from all parties involved.
- Mobility supply (solutions and lifestyles): Cities need to further extend their mobility offerings, in terms of both capacity and quality of services, and adapt from “delivering transport” to “delivering solutions”.
- Mobility demand management: Mobility demand management is a delicate discipline that can easily meet strong resistance if not properly planned and executed.
- Public transport financing: Devising the right funding mix is critical, and securing adequate funding in the context of budgetary pressure means thinking outside of the box.
Ultimately, the success of any urban mobility strategy depends on how well ecosystems can be shaped to encourage innovative business models and integrated solutions. In an effective mobility ecosystem, all groups involved are clear on what their roles are and how value will be created.
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