That’s according to new analysis and a forecast update from IHS Automotive, which has reduced its full year 2015 light vehicle sales forecast for China to 23.4 million units, reflecting a growth rate over 2014 of just 1.4%, compared with its previous forecast of 4.4% year-over-year growth.

The firm said that recent sales data – when combined with the slump in the Purchasing Manager’s Index and currency devaluation in early August, as well as the summer stock market rout – suggests a significant rebound in light vehicle sales is unlikely in the coming months. However, it added that sales activity may not be as negative as current media reports suggest.

The sales slowdown is widespread throughout China, according to the IHS analysis of its proprietary province and city-level forecast, along with the current economic climate. Nearly one in four cities (out of 340 monitored by IHS) is reporting declining light vehicle sales.

IHS preliminary readings of car sales in China for the month of August suggest some stabilisation and that the selling rate has improved during the month, although it is still likely to show a small year-over-year decline estimated to be less than 2%.  If sales in August do follow these readings, once all figures are reported, this would mark the third consecutive month of declines in China. This has happened just once in the past 15 years — in 2008, at the height of the global recession. 

Retail vehicle registrations have maintained volumes far better than wholesale vehicle sales, which may provide stronger guidance for dealer orders.  However, registration data also show that the selling pace for new customer deliveries has stalled since March of this year, according to the analysis.

Looking ahead to 2016 the firm said it still expects some growth in light vehicle sales next year, though just about 3%, to 24.2 million units, based on factors including the benefits of lower car prices and lower interest rates, the ramp-up of forced replacement of older, polluting cars based on the government vehicle scrappage programme aiming to scrap 14 million yellow label vehicles between 2014-2017; and less influence from new cities introducing license plate limits and from the light commercial vehicle sector (already down 10% this year).

It is anticipated that several of these factors may influence light vehicle sales during the early months of 2016, which could prove the most difficult. Overall market development will depend on how long it takes consumers in China to adjust to the speed of the economic slowdown. 

Looking further ahead, the firm said that early indications for light vehicle sales reflect a modest recovery in 2017 to nearly 26 million units and 26.9 million in 2018.