American Express Global Business Travel (Amex GBT) has launched its latest Ground Monitor report, revealing how changing vehicle technology, supply chain shifts and used-car values will reshape the UK and global car rental markets heading into 2026/27.

The UK stands out this year as one of the steadiest rental markets in the forecast

The annual forecast and strategic analysis report is published by the consulting arm of Amex GBT and designed to help corporate travel managers and procurement professionals plan their corporate ground transportation strategies.

The report also examines how changing vehicle economics, fleet supply and the growing sophistication of cars are reshaping the wider rental market.

The 2026/7 edition reveals that EVs are accelerating across rental markets: Brazil’s EV rental fleet grew more than 13-fold between 2021 and 2025, while UK rental rates are forecast to rise by 0.6-1.3% and Dutch rates by 4-5%.

Josh Collier, global business consulting at American Express Global Business Travel, said: “The UK stands out this year as one of the steadiest rental markets in our forecast with rates rising just 0.6% to 1.3%, reflecting the stability of the vehicle supply market. In previous years, the UK was one of the higher markets in our forecasts as demand outstripped supply which led to high increases in rental rates.

“We remain watchful of the UK zero-emission vehicle mandate (ZEV mandate), which is under review currently. If the mandate still stands post-review, this will have a big impact on car rental pricing in the UK in the medium term.

“Despite this relative stability, consolidation in the UK’s ride hail and chauffeur landscape is reshaping the broader ground transport environment. Lyft’s acquisition of Gett’s London black cab business and the TBR Global chauffeur business is the latest signal that providers see real value in the pre-book, corporate-grade end of ground transport, not just consumer ride hailing.”

Collier also noted that the traditional lines between car rental, fleet and car sharing are dissolving.

“We’re increasingly advising clients to review their current set-up and policies to ensure they are seeing the best value. Treating rental, fleet and ride hail as one governed decision instead of three will gain a clear advantage on cost, availability and traveller experience.”

The study also shows that smarter cars are driving up costs. Advanced driver-assistance technology is making vehicles more expensive to repair, with ADAS-equipped windscreen replacements potentially adding up to US$1,500 (c.£1,100) to the bill.

Other findings include that supply is stabilising, but costs remain volatile. Global new-car deliveries are keeping pace with demand, improving the rental market’s supply-demand balance, but geopolitical disruption and falling resale values could push vehicle and rental costs higher.

The full Ground Monitor 2026-27 report is available to download here.